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FTO Series: Iran-Aligned Groups Pose Multi-Faceted Threats to U.S. in Wake of War

Understanding how these foreign terrorist organizations operate, coordinate and adapt can help law enforcement and homeland security professionals identify emerging threats and protect vulnerable targets.

  • published: 2026/11/04
A photo from a rooftop in Tehran, with buildings scattered and a scaffolding crane, and smoke in the background.

Smoke rising from an explosion in Tehran on Feb. 28, the first day of the war. Credit: Arash Khamooshi/Polaris for The New York Times.

Iran-aligned terrorist organizations have long threatened American interests in the Middle East. But as the Iran war intensifies and militant networks evolve, the groups’ abilities to threaten the United States extends via cyberattacks and coordinated plots abroad.

Read the paper: “From the Red Sea to the Homeland: Assessing the Threat from Five Newly Designated Iran-Aligned Foreign Terrorist Organizations” analyzes the capabilities of five new Iran-aligned militia groups by the U.S. Department of State in 2025 and explores how the threat of attacks in the U.S. and internationally — both physical and digital — have heightened since the recent conflict with Iran began in February.

The paper’s authors are NCITE consortium scientists Martha Crenshaw, Ph.D., of Stanford University who leads the Mapping Militants project, and Mackenzie Harms Wickersham, Ph.D., a senior scientist at NCITE, headquartered at the University of Nebraska at Omaha.

Why it matters: The threat posed by Iran-aligned terrorist organizations is no longer confined to the Middle East. As militant groups develop increasingly sophisticated capabilities and operate through decentralized networks, U.S. security officials must account for threats that can emerge across borders, through digital infrastructure and from individuals inspired by overseas conflicts.

Key takeaways:

  • Iran’s proxy network is less predictable. The recent deaths of several senior Iranian leaders have given way to semi-autonomous directives, leading the groups to adapt by recruiting locally which can be harder to deter.
  • Since February 28, Iranian-related groups are behind at least 14 threats and attacks on U.S. soil. Cyberattacks, directed or enabled plots, and inspired violence are the types of threats with greatest risk to the U.S.
  • Weaponized drones are being utilized to attack critical infrastructure. NCITE research examining drone attacks between 2018 and 2024 found that the Houthis were the world's most frequent terrorist users of weaponized drones. Iran-aligned groups have used unmanned aircraft systems to target airports, energy infrastructure, commercial shipping and military installations, demonstrating how relatively accessible technology can disrupt critical operations and international commerce.

What they're saying:

  • Mackenzie Harms Wickersham, Ph.D., FTO series editor
    • “Protecting critical infrastructure, soft targets, and faith-based institutions, and watching for warning signs of network-enabled plots, are as important as the designations themselves. I hope this paper helps readers gain additional insight into those connections.”

What’s next: This white paper is part of a NCITE research series examining the more than 30 groups designated as foreign terrorist organizations by the U.S. Department of State in 2025 and 2026. Look for more reports to be published this month, and a separate page featuring all of the groups.