Anticipating Terrorist Technology Adoption to Secure the Homeland
So What?
Emerging technologies such as 3D printing, bioweapons, machine learning, and artificial intelligence, are dangerous in the hands of terrorists. When employed as weapons, these tools can allow small groups of extremists to inflict harm on large numbers of people. Even more concerning: These technologies are advancing at a dizzying speed.
Summary
Using the latest threat assessment methods, this project seeks to understand what emerging technologies terrorists and malign actors may start using.
Purpose/Objectives
This project aims to provide practitioners in several DHS components with a sustainable way to identify problematic emerging technologies, prioritize the threat, and locate opportunities to intervene. It will do this by developing a terrorist technology adoption model which assesses the likelihood that a particular group will successfully adopt a given technology. This model can then be integrated with easy-to-use tools, such as Microsoft Excel, which can be used by intelligence, policy, and law enforcement analysts.
Method
The project will utilize horizon scanning, a method that takes in information and tries to identify relevant trends. It is intended to detect strategically relevant changes within a noisy environment to help homeland security practitioners identify groups that may take advantage of emerging technologies.
Outputs and Impact
- Excel-based tool that will give DHS components the ability to evaluate the threat of emerging technologies for up to 10 years from the present. The tool can be easily updated to add new adversaries and account for changes to existing ones.
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Gary Ackerman, Ph.D.
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