How can we evaluate terrorism intervention programs?

So What?

Many terrorism prevention programs use case management models to structure interventions working with at-risk or radicalized individuals. But studies show that efforts to determine what works in these interventions are often met with practical and ethical challenges that cannot be easily overcome using current methods. Refocusing evaluation efforts by analyzing how interventions work can help overcome these challenges.

Project Summary

The project will create a toolkit for assessing whether and how interventions work to produce positive outcomes. This toolkit will be designed to help stakeholders in the United States evaluate the implementation of case management interventions aimed at preventing terrorism.

Purpose/Objectives

This project will develop a robust framework for evaluating whether and how interventions working with at-risk and radicalized individuals in the United States contribute to terrorism. The study will develop, test, and refine a scalable evaluation framework and toolkit for assessing intervention implementation in the United States. It also aims to establish a global network of evaluation experts to support U.S. stakeholders beyond the life of the project.

Method

The research team will use a range of mixed methods across four stages:

• Stage 1. Framework Development
  • Desk research will be conducted to identify the processes and mechanisms by which different elements of case management can contribute to positive outcomes. This will inform the development of a case management model and an initial evaluation framework.
• Stage 2. Framework Testing and Refinement with International Experts
  • A two-stage e-Delphi exercise consisting of two online surveys and an online focus group will test and refine the case management model and different iterations of the evaluation framework and gather feedback on how they can be improved and applied in practice.
• Stage 3. Framework Testing with DHS
  • Researchers will test an updated evaluation framework and gather feedback from DHS and NCITE personnel.
• Stage 4. Co-Development of Final Toolkit
  • The research team will revise the evaluation framework based on Stage 3 results to create a toolkit for program evaluation. The toolkit will be co-developed with NCITE to ensure it meets the needs of DHS.

	Sarah Marsden , Ph.D. University of St Andrews Senior Lecturer at the Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence School of International Relations Director of the Handa Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence (CSTPV) Expertise: Countering violent extremism, counterterrorism, radical social movements, mobilization to political violence
	James Lewis, Ph.D. University of St Andrews Research Fellow at the Handa Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence (CSTPV) School of International Relations Expertise: Countering violent extremism, evaluation