Mathematics Colloquium



Department of Mathematics
University of Nebraska at Omaha


WHEN:
Tuesday, January 10, 2006 at 2:00 PM

WHERE:
Durham Science Center, Room 255

WHAT:


Dr. Andrew Swift (Faculty candidate)

Visiting Assistant Professor, Department of Mathematical Sciences, Worcester Polytechnic Institute


will give a talk on

A Paired Comparison Model for Ranking National Soccer Teams


ABSTRACT:
Soccer’s governing body, the Fédération Internationale de Football Association (FIFA) publish monthly rankings of national soccer teams.  Although the system used by FIFA is thorough, taking into account many different factors, their methodology is somewhat arbitrary.  We propose a statistical model for ranking the national teams.  Specifically, by treating each match played as a pairwise comparison experiment and using the Bradley-Terry model under the Bayesian paradigm as a starting point, we present some suitable models.  A key component of the final model is its ability to differentiate between friendly and competitive matches when determining their impact on the final rankings. Posterior distributions for the rating parameters are obtained, and the rankings are compared to FIFA's rankings.  A brief introduction to the Bradley-Terry model and to the Bayesian paradigm are also presented.   


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