Consider the following game played with an ordinary deck of 52 playing
cards. The cards are shuffled and then turned over one at a time. At any
time the player can guess that the next card turned over will be the ace of
spades (
); if it is, then the player wins. In addition, the
player is said to win if the ace of spades has not yet appeared when only
one card remains and no guess has yet been made. What is a good strategy;
what is a bad strategy?
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